By Henry Tamburin
No other hand makes blackjack players feel queasy than the dreaded 16. Players hate to hit the hand because they are afraid to bust. So many chicken out and stand no matter what the dealer shows. Others opt for the surrender option if it’s available figuring losing half a bet is better then losing it all. If your 16 comes as a pair of 8’s most players are reluctant to split if the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace because they are afraid of losing two bets instead of one. Then there is the 16 made up with an Ace counted as 11 (i.e., soft 16). So what’s a player to do when he gets a 16?
First, let’s focus on a hard 16. That’s a hand that does not contain an Ace or if it does the Ace counts as one. Some examples of a hard 16 would be 10-6 or 5-7-4 or 7-8-Ace.
The correct basic playing strategy for hard 16 is to stand when the dealer shows a small card (2 through 6) and hit when the dealer shows a high card (7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace). Following this playing strategy will not guarantee that you will win every time but that you are more likely to lose less in the long run.. Let me explain.
- Playing 16 vs. 7 in Blackjack. Here's the situation: You're playing in a multiple deck game and receive a six and a ten for a two card total of 16, which you play against the dealer's upcard of seven. A 16 is not a great hand to have, obviously, and you're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
- Jan 08, 2015 There are two variations to the basic rules of blackjack that determine how the dealer must proceed with a hand of 17. The most common rule is the dealer is required to stand on all 17s, which reinforces the importance of a player not to take a hit on a 17.
Suppose you are dealt a 10-6 and the dealer shows a 7 upcard.
If you hit you win on average 30% of the time and lose 70%.
Dec 17, 2007 17 is a safe bet. 16 is usually a loss. Myself, I usually stay on 16 and let the dealer bust. The dealer has to beat the other players, so he will often hit on a 16.
If you stand you will on average win 26% and lose 74%.
Soft 16 Blackjack
Note that you improve your chances of winning the hand by 4% if you hit rather than stand. But the dealer is still an overwhelming favorite to beat you because he will win 70% of the hands to your 30%. But is it better to win 26% of the time by standing or 30% of the time by hitting? You should hit because it will increase your chance of winning by 4%, not much, but every percentage will help you in the long run when you play blackjack.
So the bottom line with a hard 16 is this. Even by following the basic strategy you will lose more hands than you win but in the long run you will loss less than following a seat-of-the-pants strategy. Losing less on hands where you are the underdog is just as important as winning more when you are the favorite.
What if your 16 consists of three or more cards like 5-7-4? Normally the basic strategy ignores the composition of the hand. However, if you have a hard 16 hand consisting of three or more cards, then you should stand when the dealer has a 10 showing. The reason is that you have consumed a few of the small cards that you need if you were to draw. This tips the odds in favor of standing.
Some casinos allow players to surrender. This means you give up the opportunity to play out your hand and automatically lose half your bet. Even when surrender is offered, most players don’t like “giving up” without a fight. So they rarely surrender. That’s unfortunate because surrendering a hard 16 when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or Ace will save you more money in the long run than hitting. In fact surrender is always the best option when your chance of winning a hand is less than 25%. Take the hand of hard 16 against a 10. If we hit our chance of winning is 23.4%. This means the dealer’s chance of beating us is 76.6%. If we played a hundred hard 16’s against the dealer 10 with those probabilities, we would end up winning about $23 and losing $77 for a net loss of $54 on average. By surrendering on every hand our net loss would be $50. Get the point? You are better off losing $50 then $54 which is why surrendering a hard 16 against a 10 is the better play because you will save $4.
If you happen to be dealt a soft 16 (like Ace-5), you should never surrender and you should never stand. Your first option is to double but only if the dealer shows a weak 4, 5 or 6 upcard. If not, then hit.
Finally, we have the pair of 8’s. The correct basic strategy play is to always split the 8’s no matter what the dealer shows. Even though you will lose money on both 8’s when you split, the combined loss in the long run will be less than the amount you will lose by playing the one hand as a 16. Splitting 8’s against a dealer 10 by the way is also a slightly better play then surrendering.
No question that 16 is a lousy blackjack hand. Unfortunately, it’s one of the most frequent hands you are going to be dealt in blackjack. But, by following the above playing strategy you will be optimizing your chances of winning more, and losing less, in the long run. It’s the smart way to play blackjack.
Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of the Blackjack Insider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin
Here's the situation:
You're playing in a multiple deck game and the rules are more or less standard. You are dealt a nine and a seven for a two card total of 16, while the dealer shows a ten as his upcard.
Will you stand on this hand, considering that in all likelihood you're going to bust if you hit it, or will you hit, figuring you'll have no chance at all if you don't?
Well, the correct play to make is to hit this hand.
Needless to say, you are in one of the tougher spots a blackjack player can be in. Having a 16 puts you into a 'no man's land' of sorts because whatever you do, it can seem like the losing move.
You have, in point of fact, a very slim chance to win the hand. Now what you have to do is start thinking about how you're going to LOSE LESS on the hand. And indeed, this is a VERY close call.
- Taking the posture where you're going to always stand on this hand will bring you a defeat 77% of the time, which constitutes the number of times the dealer is going to be pat (in a 'standing' position) with a ten showing.
- Hitting the hand will obviously have you busting out quite a bit, and you will win 2.7% less. But you will also lose 3.1% less, making it a slightly better decision to hit the 16 here.
Blackjack Dealer 16 Or 17 18
Don't forget a very strong rule of thumb: when you're in a losing situation, at least position yourself to minimize your losses when you can.
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